Iran’s internet blackout has entered its 57th day since its imposition on February 28. The blackout, coinciding with military tensions, has pushed the odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 to 8.5% YES, up from 8% a day ago.
Market reaction
The June 30 market has seen odds climb from 6% a week ago, showing growing trader conviction about potential regime change. The May 31 market sits at 3.7% YES, down from 5% yesterday. Traders see the June timeline as more probable for any significant change.
Combined daily volume for the June 30 market is $423,658 face value, but actual USDC traded is $35,587. It takes $16,830 to move the price by 5 points, indicating moderate depth. Large trades can still sway odds significantly. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 1-point spike, showing the market’s sensitivity to new information.
Why it matters
A 57-day internet blackout is an indicator of severe internal crisis management, not just a connectivity disruption. With the economy taking a massive hit and protests continuing, the regime’s grip looks increasingly tenuous. At 8.5¢ per YES share, traders are pricing in a 11.76x return if the regime falls by June 30. For this bet to pay off, significant political shifts would need to occur within the next 67 days.
What to watch
Watch the Assembly of Experts and any changes in IRGC leadership. A public appearance by Mojtaba Khamenei or reports of IRGC defections could move these markets sharply. Signs of external intervention or diplomatic shifts are also worth tracking.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3.7% | — | — | Trade → |
