Iran’s official Mortazavi confirmed the Caspian Sea’s integration into supply chains for essential goods, citing ongoing concerns with the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of 80 ships transiting Hormuz on any day by April 30 is at 0.7% YES, down from 4% yesterday.
Traders reacted to Iran’s strategic shift north, reading it as a signal of continued disruptions in Hormuz. The April 30 market dropped from 51% a week ago to its current level, showing deep skepticism about any near-term resolution. With just six days until the market resolves, odds for Hormuz traffic normalization are near zero.
Volume in the Hormuz transit market is light: $10,129/day face value but only $449 in actual USDC traded. The thin order book means just $542 can move the market 5 points. That kind of illiquidity creates sharp price swings but also signals low confidence in any quick resolution.
Mortazavi’s announcement points to Iran routing goods through the International North-South Transport Corridor via the Caspian Sea, reducing dependence on Hormuz for food security. For traders, this suggests sustained tensions and makes it less likely that major shipping lines resume Gulf services soon. Buying YES at 1¢ offers a 100x return, but only if a drastic shift occurs in the next week.
Watch for announcements from the IRGC or Iran’s Foreign Ministry, as any changes in toll systems or transit guidelines could move these markets.
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