Iran’s move to impose tolls on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz drew strong words from the U.S. at the UN, but Washington has not responded to Iran’s proposal directly. The odds of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 have risen to 16% YES.
The diplomatic meeting market shows growing skepticism about a meeting, with YES shares up from 9% just 24 hours ago. The market is thin, requiring only $141 to move the odds by 5 points.
The Trump agreement market has moved sharply in the other direction. At 3.7% YES, down from 14% yesterday and 62% a week ago, traders are pricing out any U.S. concessions this month. Face value on the contract is $53,317, but actual USDC traded is just $5,833, with only $119 needed to shift prices 5 points. The largest move in the last 24 hours was an 8-point spike, showing how sensitive the market is to even small volume.
Iran’s toll strategy complicates any diplomatic path forward. Washington’s silence reads as a hardline position, which makes a quick diplomatic opening less likely. A YES share in the diplomatic meeting market, priced at 16¢, pays $1 if no meeting occurs, a 6.25x return. That bet pays off only if the diplomatic deadlock holds through June 30.
Watch for any White House or UN statements that signal a shift in U.S. strategy. A named intermediary or a specific date for talks would be the clearest catalysts for repricing.
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Iran Coup Attempt June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 16.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 3.7% | — | — | Trade → |
