An Iranian official expressed optimism for a preliminary agreement with the US, suggesting progress in extending the current ceasefire. The market for US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 sits at 8.0% YES.
Market reaction
The statement moved several related markets. The likelihood of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 is just 2.1% YES. The Iran uranium enrichment agreement by April 30 market ticked up to 44.4% YES, from 35% yesterday.
The US-Iran ceasefire market has $699,190 in USDC traded over 24 hours. The order book shows $4,528 is needed to move odds by 5 percentage points, which points to real liquidity.
Why it matters
The statement signals possible de-escalation toward a formal ceasefire extension. Without a specific agreement on uranium enrichment, though, the situation is fragile. Traders need to weigh the probability of concrete progress against ongoing tensions between the two countries.
What to watch
A YES share in the ceasefire market at 8¢ pays 12.5x if it resolves YES. Watch for announcements from Pakistan, the US, or Iran regarding new talks or a preliminary agreement. Any confirmed resumption of negotiations could move these odds quickly.
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Where Will The Next Us Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen 455| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 44.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 30.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 45.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 72% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
