Iran reportedly has an 11-ton uranium stockpile, enough for 100 nuclear weapons. The market for Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium by April 30 sits at 5.5% YES, down from 65% a week ago.
The April 30 market is at 5.5% YES with just 6 days left. The December 31 market is at 43% YES, up from 40% yesterday, meaning some traders still price in a longer-term agreement. The June 30 market is at 28.5% YES.
Traders are skeptical of any near-term resolution. The Uranium Enrichment Agreement for April 30 is at 5.8% YES. At 5.8¢, a YES share would pay out $1, a 17x return, but few are buying.
The market for the U.S. obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 remains quiet. No active trades signal a lack of confidence in either a diplomatic breakthrough or covert operations achieving that outcome.
The report, sourced from @ynetnews, moved the market but hasn’t changed entrenched positions. An 11-ton stockpile gives Iran significant negotiating leverage, and that makes quick concessions unlikely. A real shift would require a concrete diplomatic development or a major international incident.
Watch for IAEA statements or any change in rhetoric from Trump or Khamenei. A surprise summit or new sanctions regime could move these markets.
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Iran Agrees To Surrender Enriched Uranium Stockpile| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 42.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 29% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5.8% | — | — | Trade → |
