Iran has announced no further talks with the US are planned, even as American envoys head to Pakistan. The likelihood of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurring by April 24 now sits at 0.1% YES, down from 1% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 24 contract is essentially dead. The April 25 and April 26 markets show a slight uptick to 3.5% and 23.6% YES, respectively. April 26 dropped 19 points, which suggests traders doubt any immediate progress.
Why it matters
The likelihood of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurring by June 30 has increased, with that market at 7.1% YES. Odds for a permanent peace deal by April 30 in the US-Iran permanent peace deal market have fallen to 9.5% YES, a 20% drop from a week ago.
Actual USDC traded in the meeting dates market is just $1,042, with order book depth showing as little as $3 needed to move the April 26 price 5 points. This thin liquidity makes sharp price swings likely on any news.
What to watch
The contrarian play is buying YES at 9.5¢ for a potential 10.5x payout if a deal is announced, though this is high-risk given the current breakdown in communication. Statements from Steve Witkoff or Abbas Araghchi, or any changes in US envoy travel plans, could move these markets quickly.
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Next Us X Iran Diplomatic Meeting On| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 24 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 25 | 3.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 26 | 23.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 7.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 34.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 53.5% | — | — | Trade → |
