Iran agreed to halt the executions of eight women linked to anti-regime protests following an appeal by Trump. The Iranian regime fall by April 30 market sits at 0.5% YES.
The regime released four women immediately and granted a one-month prison term for the remaining four. The Iranian regime fall by April 30 market is at 0.5% YES, down from 1% yesterday. The May 31 market is at 3.4%, down from 4% a day ago. Traders appear to read the halt as short-term stabilization.
In the Iran leadership change by December 31 market, odds are at 38.5% YES, up from 36% yesterday. The largest move was a 1-point spike. The April 30 market is at 3.5% YES and May 31 at 13.5%, both showing minor adjustments as traders reassess near-term probabilities.
Trading volumes tell a clearer story about market structure. The Iranian regime fall market has $37,233 in daily USDC volume, with $34,065 needed to move the price by 5 points, which means it’s relatively hard to push around. The Iran leadership change market trades $10,788 daily, with only $3,920 required to shift it by 5 points, making it more vulnerable to large single orders.
At 0.5¢, buying YES on a regime fall by April 30 is a long-shot bet. For it to pay off, you’d need dramatic destabilization within the next week. The execution halt suggests the opposite direction: Iran responding to US pressure with concessions rather than escalation.
Watch for upcoming diplomatic engagements or shifts in US policy toward Iran. Statements from Iran’s judiciary, further international appeals, or any moves from the Assembly of Experts or the IRGC could move these markets quickly.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 3.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
