Iranian officials are calling the Lebanon ceasefire a victory for Hezbollah and the Axis of Resistance. The market for an Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 now sits at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago.
The ceasefire news hit short-term markets hardest. The April 30 market surged 13 points after the announcement. The June 30 market is at 96.6% YES, meaning traders price the truce as lasting well past the near term.
The Israel suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026 market is at 96.2% YES, up from 87% just a day ago. Traders are pricing in that Israel will maintain the ceasefire, at least through the spring.
Volume on the April 30 ceasefire market is at $1,041,878 in USDC traded, with $50,093 needed to move the market 5 points. The largest single price move was the 13-point spike on the announcement, which points to large positions driving the action.
Iran’s framing of this as an Axis of Resistance success matters for how the ceasefire holds politically. At 94¢ per YES share, you’re betting the ceasefire holds without further escalation. Victory declarations from Tehran don’t change the military situation on the ground, and regional ceasefires have collapsed before under similar rhetorical conditions.
Watch for statements from Netanyahu and IDF announcements. Resumed hostilities or a breakdown in talks could swing the odds sharply. Follow @netanyahu and IDF channels for signals on whether the current ceasefire stance holds or fractures.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 96.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 97.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 98.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 89.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
