Iran faces oil storage crisis as Strait of Hormuz blockade tightens

Iran has roughly 12-13 days of storage capacity left as the Strait of Hormuz blockade tightens, while the Polymarket contract on Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 has collapsed to 0.8% YES, down from 6% just 24 hours ago.

The blockade is squeezing Iran’s export capability hard. The WTI crude oil market for April 2026 prices in a 15% expected increase, with traders factoring in the possibility of WTI hitting $160 if the situation escalates further. Iran has resorted to reviving 30-year-old tankers like the Nasha for floating storage, a sign of how constrained onshore capacity has become.

The uranium stockpile surrender markets tell a split story across timeframes. The April 30 contract sits at 0.8% YES, but the June 30 contract trades at 21.5% YES and the December 31 contract at 40.5% YES. The near-term market has essentially priced out a quick diplomatic resolution, while longer-dated contracts still give meaningful odds to eventual concessions.

The WTI market has $0 in face value traded so far. The uranium stockpile markets are more active, with $39,286 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. A YES share in the June 30 uranium surrender market costs 22¢ and pays 4.5x if Iran concedes by then. The 15% expected WTI price jump is based on tier-2 source reporting about the direct strain on Iran’s export and storage infrastructure.

Watch for OPEC+ production decisions or additional sanctions that could further limit Iran’s ability to store or move oil. Statements from Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud on Saudi production policy would directly affect how much pressure Iran faces to negotiate.

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Term Structure

Contract	Odds	Δ since publish	Volume 24h
April 30, 2026	0.8%	—	—	Trade →
December 31, 2026	40.5%	—	—	Trade →
June 30, 2026	22.5%	—	—	Trade →

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