Iran’s National Security Committee head announced expectations for a ceasefire extension with the US and plans for talks in Pakistan. The prospect of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 is at 38% YES, down from 59% a day ago.
The news has moved several related markets. The April 21 ceasefire end odds rose to 16%, up from 6% yesterday. The April 30 ceasefire market fell sharply, with traders skeptical that Iran’s overtures will produce a deal. With only 12 days left, the window for a resolution is narrow.
The ceasefire market has $80,435 in actual USDC traded daily, with $1,566 depth to move the price five points. This is moderate liquidity: trading is active, but larger orders can swing the odds meaningfully. The biggest move in the last 24 hours was a 4-point drop at 5:27 PM, likely triggered by the announcement.
Iran’s statement points to a temporary de-escalation and a diplomatic track through Pakistan. But the US naval blockade and unresolved nuclear demands keep the situation tense. At 38¢, a YES share on an April 30 ceasefire pays $1, a 2.63x return. That payout depends on breakthroughs in the upcoming Pakistan talks.
Watch for a formal announcement of resumed talks or confirmed intermediary involvement. Any shift in US rhetoric toward or away from negotiation would be the next major signal.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Trump Announces End Of Military Operations Against Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 39.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 37.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
