Iran dismissed Trump’s statements about concessions and maintained restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade by May 31 is now at 78%, down from 90% yesterday.
Market reaction
The May 31 market fell 12 points in a single day after Iran’s firm stance. The April 19 market dropped harder, falling to 8% from 28% with just one day until resolution. Traders are clearly betting against a breakthrough given both sides’ entrenched positions.
Daily volume was $29,602 in USDC, with the largest single-day move being a 6-point drop on April 19. The order book is thin: only $1,419 is needed to shift the May 31 odds by 5 points, which makes the market vulnerable to large trades.
Why it matters
Iran’s rejection is a direct roadblock to lifting the blockade. With both governments hardening their positions, a near-term resolution looks unlikely. At 8¢, a YES share for April 19 pays $1 if resolved, a 12.5x return. That bet requires a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough with no public signs one is coming.
What to watch
Statements from the U.S. Navy or Iranian military actions in the strait. Any shift in rhetoric from either side could move these markets quickly, especially given the thin order books.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 78.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19, 2026 | 8% | — | — | Trade → |
