## Market Snapshot
Markets focused on the Strait of Hormuz show a decrease in the likelihood of ship transits. The probability for 20 ships transiting by May 31 is currently at 45% YES, down from 52% 24 hours ago. The market for normal traffic levels by May 15 has dropped to 0.2% YES.
## Key Takeaways
– The deployment of Iran’s “mosquito” boats appears to strengthen the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting a decreased likelihood of normal shipping activity. – The market pricing suggests that participants view the continuation of Iran’s tactics as a significant barrier to lifting the blockade by the end of May. – Observations indicate that the impact on the Strait of Hormuz markets is consistent with a high escalation scenario, reducing the probability of any diplomatic breakthrough in the near term.
## Article Body
Iran has reportedly deployed a fleet of small, agile “mosquito” boats to maintain its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic move comes in response to the destruction of its conventional naval forces by US-Israeli airstrikes. The use of these small vessels, alongside sea mines and drones, has effectively halted commercial shipping through this critical oil chokepoint since early March. Despite ongoing US blockades and countermeasures, Iran’s tactics appear to sustain high levels of disruption, leaving hundreds of vessels stranded. This development is a part of the larger 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict, which began with US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran in February.
## Market Interpretation
The news of Iran’s continued use of “mosquito” boats is consistent with scenarios where the likelihood of ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz remains low. This development is supportive of NO outcomes in markets forecasting ship movements by the end of May. The impact level is assessed as high due to the strategic importance of the strait and the ongoing military and diplomatic tensions.
## What to Watch
Key developments to monitor include any changes in military strategy by the United States or Iran, particularly regarding naval escorts or new blockades. Diplomatic efforts by international bodies or a shift in US-Iran negotiations could alter the current situation. Market participants will also look for statements from major shipping companies or oil producers about their plans amid the ongoing blockade. These factors could influence market perceptions and pricing in the coming days.
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Will Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz On Any Day May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 45% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 12% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 24% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 10% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 0.2% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 8.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 5.3% | — | — | View market → |
