Iran’s insistence on sanctions relief and US force withdrawal before negotiations has increased tensions. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
The April 7 market is under pressure, dropping 2 points today. Traders are reacting to the disagreement over negotiation terms. The April 15 market also fell, now at 18% YES from 20% yesterday. However, the April 30 market rose 4 points to 38% YES, indicating traders expect changes by late April.
Ceasefire markets are active, with volume at $1,365,780 in USDC over the last 24 hours. It takes over $15K to shift April 7 odds by 5 points. A notable move was a 2-point drop at 8:13 AM, likely due to today’s news.
The firm positions from both sides suggest a low chance of a quick resolution. The April 7 market reflects this with a 12x payout on a YES share at 8¢ if a ceasefire occurs. The April 30 market shows more optimism, suggesting traders anticipate a breakthrough by then.
Watch for Secretary of State Rubio’s next statement and any intermediary actions from Oman or Qatar. Changes in rhetoric or signs of back-channel talks could significantly impact odds.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.9% | -6.6% | $3.4M | Trade → |
| April 15 | 10.5% | -8% | $3.4M | Trade → |
| April 30 | 29.5% | -9% | $1.5M | Trade → |
| May 31 | 50.5% | -5% | $228K | Trade → |
| June 30 | 61.5% | -1% | $173K | Trade → |
| December 31 | 73% | -0.5% | $134K | Trade → |
