Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi delivered Tehran’s demands to U.S. counterparts via Pakistan. The market on Trump agreeing to a ceasefire by April 21 sits at 100% YES, unchanged but under scrutiny.
The delivery occurred during Operation Epic Fury, with demands to lift the naval blockade and halt U.S. actions. Trump’s Hormuz blockade ending by May 31, 2026, is at 64% YES, down from 72% yesterday. That 8-point drop tracks with the hardline positions on both sides making a near-term lift unlikely. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands by April remains uncertain, with no clear odds available.
Trading volume for the Hormuz blockade market is $95,253 in USDC, with $8,975 needed to move the price 5 points. That ratio shows real interest but limited movement potential. The largest recent move was a 5-point spike at 3:50 PM, likely a single large order rather than broad sentiment change.
Iran’s demands, delivered through Islamabad, came with no reported concessions from either side. At 36¢, a YES share for the blockade lifting pays $1, a 2.78x return. That payout requires belief in a diplomatic breakthrough that the current positions don’t support.
Watch for shifts in Pakistan’s mediation efforts or new statements from CENTCOM or the White House. Either would likely move these markets.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 63.5% | — | — | Trade → |
