Iran’s National Security Council declared a U.S.-Israel defeat after Pakistan and China brokered a ceasefire. The ceasefire by April 15 market hit 100% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
A 24-point spike at 10:34 PM drove the move as traders reacted to the diplomatic progress. The April 30 market and later dates also sit at 100% YES, indicating traders expect the diplomatic track to hold past April 15.
Meanwhile, the Iranian regime fall by June 30 market dropped to 8.5% YES from 12% a day ago. Iran’s ability to negotiate and frame the ceasefire as a victory weakens the case for imminent regime instability.
Combined 24-hour USDC volume hit $5.19M, with $1.39M on the April 15 ceasefire alone. That level of volume reflects serious trader commitment, not scattered speculation. The largest single move, a 24-point jump, came directly on the ceasefire announcement.
Why it matters
The ceasefire is a potential de-escalation point amid continued conflict. For traders, a YES share on the regime fall market priced at 8¢ pays $1 on success, a 12.5x return. But that payout looks unlikely unless internal fractures or leadership changes emerge soon.
What to watch
The upcoming Islamabad talks are the next catalyst. Key signals: intermediary actions by Oman or Qatar, named envoys, or any legislative moves by Iran’s parliament related to the Strait of Hormuz. Any of these could move the odds.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
