Iran declared its missile program non-negotiable, and the ceasefire-by-April-30 market dropped to 34.5% YES, down from 59% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The ceasefire market fell 21.5 points overnight. Traders are pricing in doubt that Trump and the Sultan of Oman can close the gap before April 30. The market needs only $1,566 to move 5 points, meaning it’s thin and vulnerable to large swings from single trades.
The Trump Iran Demands market is also moving. Trump agreeing to Iranian demands like oil sanctions relief looks less probable given Iran’s hardened stance.
Why it matters
Iran’s missile program covers Israel and parts of Europe. By taking it off the table entirely, Iran has removed one of the few bargaining chips that could have enabled a broader deal. A YES share at 34.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 2.63x return that reflects how uncertain the outcome is.
What to watch
Any change in rhetoric from Trump or the Sultan of Oman, or unexpected intermediary activity from Qatar, would be the most likely catalysts for a price move in either direction.
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Trump Announces End Of Military Operations Against Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 34.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 31.6% | — | — | Trade → |
