Satellite data shows Iran loading oil at Kharg Island, maintaining control despite the US blockade. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30 sits at 1% YES, down from 5% yesterday.
The April 30 contract dropped 4 points in 24 hours, now at 1% YES. Traders see almost no chance of Iran losing control by month’s end. The May 31 and June 30 contracts sit at 12% and 16% YES respectively, with May showing the largest single-day drop.
These markets traded $50,017 in USDC over the past 24 hours. The order book is thin: it takes only $9,474 to move the April 30 market 5 points, meaning even moderate trades produce noticeable price swings. The largest recent move was a 1-point drop, consistent with growing skepticism about US control efforts.
Iran’s continued oil operations at Kharg Island directly contradict the blockade’s stated purpose. Buying YES at 16¢ for the June contract would pay 6.25x if control changes by then, but that outcome would require a major military or diplomatic shift.
Watch for CENTCOM announcements or Iranian state media reports that could change the situation. Any confirmed US military movement toward Kharg Island or an Iranian strategic retreat would likely move these odds.
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Will The Kharg Island Oil Terminal Be Hit March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
