A US official confirmed Iran’s continued mine-laying in the Strait of Hormuz. The market on 80 ships transiting the strait by April 30 has dropped to 3.6%, down from 10% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The April 30 sub-market stood at 20% a week ago and has since fallen sharply. Repeated mine-laying makes safe commercial transit less plausible, and the market resolves in days.
Why it matters
Daily volume in the Strait of Hormuz market is $794 in USDC. Liquidity is thin: $940 moves the odds by 5 points, so relatively small trades can cause large swings. The biggest move in the past 24 hours was a 1-point drop, consistent with cautious positioning rather than aggressive bets.
What to watch
At 4¢, a YES share pays $1 if transits surpass 80 ships by April 30, a 25x return. That bet requires either a swift resolution or a dramatic de-escalation, neither of which looks likely given active mine-laying operations. Any statements from US CENTCOM or new demining efforts could shift odds. Admiral Brad Cooper’s next briefing, particularly any changes in Navy strategy, is the most likely near-term catalyst.
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