IRGC General Esmail Kowsari has suggested Iran could reroute oil exports through Russia if the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists. The odds of Trump announcing the blockade’s end by April 17 sit at 4.5% YES.
The market for Trump’s blockade announcement by April 17 is at 4.5% with one day left until resolution. The May 31 odds hold steady at 83%. Iran’s rerouting strategy through Russia signals preparation for a longer standoff, which could weigh on the short-term contracts.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of April is priced at 56.0%, showing skepticism about a quick resolution. The term structure points to traders expecting a catalyst in the weeks before May 31, with a wide spread between the April 17 and May 31 contracts.
USDC volume in the blockade markets is $56,702 over the past 24 hours. The May 31 market can be moved 5 points with just $250, meaning large trades could cause sharp swings. A 24-point spike in the April 17 market earlier today shows how sensitive pricing is to any hint of diplomatic movement.
Kowsari’s comments point to a strategic pivot rather than a concession, which complicates the blockade’s resolution timeline. At 16¢, buying YES on an April 17 lift pays $1, a 6.25x return if it resolves. That bet requires an immediate diplomatic breakthrough, which Kowsari’s statement makes unlikely.
Watch for statements from the Trump administration or Iranian officials signaling a shift. The Pentagon’s next briefing or any back-channel negotiations could move these markets fast.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 80% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 23.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 61% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
