CRU reports that more than half of the Middle East’s urea production may be lost due to the Iran conflict. The Polymarket contract for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1% YES, down from 2% a day ago.
Market reaction
The Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly a third of global urea exports and significant oil volumes, is closed, crimping supply chains. Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 trades at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday, with actual USDC volume at $2,513/day. The cost to move the price 5 points is $695, meaning modest order sizes can shift the market.
Why it matters
Tanker traffic through the strait is down over 90%, and traders appear to expect prolonged disruptions. Yet the odds show clear skepticism about crude hitting the $120/barrel mark within the next week. The largest price move was a 1-point spike at 5:31 AM, consistent with thin, indecisive trading.
What to watch
Buying YES at 1¢ would pay 100x if crude does hit an all-time high, but that requires major geopolitical escalation within six days. The 1% price reflects how few traders expect that outcome. Watch for OPEC+ statements, US strategic petroleum reserve releases, further military escalation, or diplomatic moves from the Trump administration or Iranian leadership. Any of these could move the contract sharply.
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