The Iran conflict has rerouted global shipping, with Panama Canal lane prices soaring nearly 10x. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market sits at 6% YES for 80 ships transiting by April 30.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market dropped from 17% yesterday to 6% YES today. The ongoing blockade has forced oil shipments to reroute through the Panama Canal, increasing demand for transit slots and pushing up prices. The WTI crude oil hitting $160 in April market remains at 0.9% YES, showing little belief in a near-term price spike.
The 80 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 market traded $73,386 in face value over the past 24 hours, with actual trade volume at $8,953, suggesting concentrated interest but low confidence. Odds have fallen from 28% a week ago to 6% today. The order book is thin: just $946 moves the price by 5 points, making the market vulnerable to large trades.
The rerouting through Panama reflects how completely Hormuz traffic has shut down. With no progress toward reopening the strait, the current logistical disruption has no clear end date. At 0.9% YES, a bet on WTI crude hitting $160 in April requires belief in a sudden supply shock beyond what the blockade has already caused.
Watch for announcements from the IRGC or U.S. Central Command regarding transit protocols or naval blockades. These would be the most likely catalysts for any real movement in the Hormuz normalization odds.
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Will Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz On Any Day End Of April| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
