Iran Conflict Not Major Concern For Bitcoin Mining Hashrate, Say Experts
Despite battlefield blowback fears, Bitcoin’s network is likely to shrug off disruptions, experts told Decrypt.
By Callan QuinnEdited by Stephen GravesMar 2, 2026Mar 2, 20263 min read
In brief
- Social media rumors argued that massive BTC dumps and hashrate collapse could follow the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran.
- Analysts and miners say Iran’s share of global Bitcoin mining is small and the impact limited.
- War-driven volatility is tied more to price sentiment than supply network risk, they argued.
The escalating conflict in Iran is unlikely to significantly disrupt the global Bitcoin mining network, industry analysts and operators said, countering circulating rumours on social media platforms suggesting a disastrous hit to hashrate and a flood of Bitcoin sell-offs.
“I don’t think it’s of any major concern for Bitcoin,” Wolfie Zhao, head of research at TheMinerMag, told Decrypt, dismissing suggestions that conflict-related power outages in Iran would materially affect the network. While individual miners could see disruptions, the scale is not comparable to past global shocks like the 2021 crackdown on mining in China, Zhao added.
The remarks come amid heightened speculation on social media platforms that the war could force the collapse of Iran’s mining industry, leading to billions of dollars in BTC dumped on markets and hundreds of thousands of rigs going offline.
Bitcoin dipped and then rebounded over the weekend. But on X, posters warned that disruption to Iran's power grid could lead to "2-5%" of the global Bitcoin hashrate being impacted, with one tweet on Saturday arguing that “If this regime falls: - Billions in BTC get dumped or lost forever - 5% of global hashrate disappears overnight - 427,000 rigs go dark Get ready for the supply shock.”
According to data from CoinWarz, Bitcoin's hashrate was around 986.1876 EH/s on February 28 in the immediate aftermath of the first U.S.-Israeli attacks, and rose to highs of 1.1361 ZH/s on March 1, before dipping to just under 1 ZH/s Tuesday morning.
On Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users place an 51% chance on the Iranian regime falling by October—up almost 20% on the weekend.
Crypto mining in Iran
Although it was legalized in 2019, crypto mining in Iran has faced significant structural hurdles for years, including unstable power, high import costs and regulatory complexities that have limited growth.
Ethan Vera, COO of Luxor Technology, said that even if Iranian mining activity were interrupted, there would be minimal impact on Bitcoin block times or network security. Estimates of Iran’s actual share of global hashrate vary, but most put it in the low single digits. Vera put it at below 1%.
“If there is an interruption there will be no material impact to block times, and zero impact to the security of the Bitcoin network,” he said.
He added he believed the industry there was made up of private enterprises mining small scale and legacy Chinese companies operating in the space.
Iran has built a substantial crypto ecosystem that serves as an alternative financial channel outside the U.S. dollar system, a system that the country is largely locked out of due to international sanctions.
🚨 Iranian cryptoasset outflows surge 700% within minutes of airstrikes
Elliptic analysis shows a 700% surge in outflows from Iranian exchange Nobitex within minutes of the first US-Israeli airstrikes.
Surges have been occurring since January, coinciding with new US sanctions… pic.twitter.com/7cczBUInXN
— Elliptic (@elliptic) March 2, 2026
“Iranian cryptocurrency activity is correlated to political events and conflict at home and abroad,” said Chainalysis in a report in January. It estimated that Iran’s broader crypto economy reached $7.78 billion in 2025, with a sizable portion of activity tied to state-linked entities.
The conflict has prompted a spike in cryptoasset outflows from Iranian exchanges, with a report from blockchain analytics firm Elliptic finding that outgoing transaction volumes spiked by 700% within minutes of the first U.S.-Israeli attack.
