## Market Snapshot
US-Iran Peace Deal market is priced at 0.1% YES, down from 1% 24 hours ago and 19% a week ago. WTI Crude Oil Prices in May 2026 market shows a 51% chance of hitting $110, down from 56% a day ago.
## Key Takeaways
– The ongoing Iran conflict appears to reduce the likelihood of a peace deal before Trump’s visit to China. – WTI crude oil prices show a strong likelihood of hitting $150 in May, consistent with market disruptions. – Trump-Xi talks are suggested to focus on energy diplomacy, influenced by the Iran conflict’s impact on global markets.
## Article Body
The war between Iran and the United States has significantly impacted global energy markets, with China benefiting from increased demand for clean energy. The conflict, which includes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has disrupted global oil flows, affecting energy diplomacy as Trump visits Beijing. Trump’s agenda includes discussions on energy, highlighting the vulnerability of fossil-fuel imports and the surge in China’s renewable energy sector. The upcoming talks between Trump and Xi Jinping are crucial as they navigate these complex geopolitical and energy market dynamics.
## Market Interpretation
The developments appear to be supportive of a NO outcome in the US-Iran Peace Deal market, given the ongoing conflict and its impact on global energy markets. This suggests a high-impact development, consistent with continued tensions reducing the likelihood of a peace deal before Trump’s visit. For WTI Crude Oil Prices, the market’s behavior suggests a moderate to high likelihood of prices reaching $150 in May, reflecting the ongoing disruptions in the oil market due to the Iran war.
## What to Watch
Observers should monitor the outcomes of the Trump-Xi talks, particularly any announcements related to energy cooperation. Additionally, developments in the US-Iran conflict, such as military engagements or diplomatic breakthroughs, could further influence markets. Key actors, including Trump, Xi Jinping, and Iranian officials, remain central to unfolding events that may drive future pricing changes.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal Before Trump Visits China| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Trump visits China | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 2.6% | — | — | View market → |
| May 2026 | 5.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 2026 | 10.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 2026 | 19.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 2026 | 51% | — | — | View market → |
