The ongoing Iran conflict is hitting China’s economy, with car sales and factory operations suffering. The crude oil all-time high by April 30 market sits at 0.4% YES.
Market reaction
Oil supply disruptions from the conflict have kept prices elevated, but the crude oil all-time high market is flat at 0.4% YES, down from 2% a day ago. Traders are not pricing in a spike past the all-time high despite economic strain on China. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike at 5:31 AM when odds briefly hit 4%.
The US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026 market sits at 7.5% YES, down slightly from 8% a day ago. The lack of movement suggests traders are not pricing in further military escalation even as the conflict’s economic effects spread.
Why it matters
The crude oil market saw $2,513 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, with face value volume of $100,828. The market is thin: just $695 would shift the odds by 5 percentage points. Any meaningful price movement could come from relatively small trades.
What to watch
The economic damage in China has not translated into a shift in market probabilities. A YES share at 0.4¢ in the crude oil market pays $1 if prices hit an all-time high by April 30, a theoretical 250x return, but traders remain skeptical at current odds. Watch for OPEC+ announcements or developments involving the Strait of Hormuz, as either could move oil prices and these markets.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Will The Us Officially Declare War On Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |