Trump’s Truth Social post reveals Iran will not execute eight women protesters. The Iranian regime fall by April 30 market sits at 0.7% YES.
The commutation of these death sentences amid ongoing tensions suggests a de-escalatory move by Iran. The April 30 market, at 0.7%, is down from 1% yesterday. The June 30 market remains at 8.0% YES, unchanged from a week ago, suggesting traders expect any significant regime change to occur later, if at all.
The regime change market sees $1,286,234 in daily face value but only $33,064 in actual USDC. It would take $23,169 in USDC to move the April odds by five points, making this a thin market. The largest recent movement was a one-point spike in the June market, which has otherwise held steady since Trump’s announcement.
Iran’s willingness to commute sentences may signal a shift towards engagement, but this action alone doesn’t imply imminent regime collapse. At 7¢, a YES share for April 30 pays $1 if the regime falls, a 14.3x return. For this bet to make sense, you’d have to believe in an unexpected catalyst within nine days.
Watch for Iran’s participation in the potential second-round talks in Pakistan, which could shift regime stability perceptions. Any official confirmation from Iran on the commutations will matter.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
