Pakistan says a US-Iran deal is imminent, but Iran’s Strait of Hormuz closure complicates talks. The ceasefire market sits at 8% YES for an extension by April 21, up from 7% a week ago.
Pakistan is sending optimistic signals, but Iran’s recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has traders cautious. The April 21 ceasefire market remains low at 8%, showing skepticism about a quick resolution. The April 30 market has climbed to 46.5% YES from 17% last week.
The term structure shows traders expect action after April 21, with a 20-point jump from April 22 to April 30. The May 31 market at 65.5% YES suggests belief in a deal within 45 days. June 30 odds at 73.5% YES price in even more confidence over the next few months.
Daily trading volume across ceasefire markets is $699,190 in USDC. The largest recent move was a 10-point drop in the May 31 market, showing sensitivity to any shift in diplomatic tone. Moving the market 5 points requires $14,900, meaning it’s thick enough to absorb minor news but vulnerable to bigger developments.
The Strait of Hormuz closure raises the stakes in negotiations. Pakistan’s claims of a deal sound promising, but the market prices in real uncertainty. At 46.5¢, a YES share by April 30 pays $1, a 2.9x return. You’d need to believe in rapid diplomatic progress to take that bet.
Watch for Trump’s public statements, Pakistan’s mediation role, and any Pentagon briefings. Moves by Oman or Qatar as intermediaries, especially if they host new talks, will be the clearest signals.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 33.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 46.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
