Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz reversed Bitcoin’s surge to $78,000 within 1.5 days. The market on Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April is now at 99.9% YES.
## Market reaction
The Strait’s reopening was short-lived; Iran closed it again amid escalated tensions. Bitcoin plummeted in response. The April 19 market sits at 99.9% YES, meaning traders expect further downward pressure. The April 20 market is priced similarly, with continued skepticism about a recovery.
Trading volume hit $105,585 in actual USDC against a $107,670 face value in the past 24 hours. The largest single price move was a slight dip from 100% to 99.9%. Traders are pricing in the geopolitical risk from the Strait’s closure and its effect on global oil supply chains.
## Why it matters
The Strait of Hormuz closure is a temporary shock, not a fundamental change in Bitcoin’s trajectory. But it shows how fast geopolitical events outside crypto can move these markets. At 99.9¢, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin dips to $60,000 in April, a 1.00x return. The bet comes down to whether these tensions persist.
## What to watch
Watch for announcements from US or Iranian officials about the Strait’s status. Any signals of reopening could quickly stabilize or reverse Bitcoin’s dip. US-Iran negotiation developments or military actions in the region would also move these markets.
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Bitcoin Above On April 14| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 20 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 18 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
