Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the market on no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 has moved to 3.7% YES, up from 2% yesterday.
Market reaction
Iran’s closure of the Strait, combined with the US seizure of an Iranian cargo ship, has traders betting against a diplomatic meeting. The June 30 market sits at 3.7% YES. The market is thin, with only $400 in daily USDC volume, so small orders move the price easily.
The odds of Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 dropped to 31.2% YES, down from 65% yesterday. The largest single move was a 12-point drop, showing traders doubt Iran will negotiate under these conditions.
Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April fell to 43.5% YES, down from 62% a day ago. Traders are reading the hardening US stance as a barrier to concessions.
Why it matters
Iran closing a waterway that handles roughly 20% of global oil transit, paired with US ship seizures, has compressed the timeline for any diplomatic resolution. At 31.2¢, a YES share on Iran surrendering its uranium stockpile by month’s end pays $1 if it resolves, a 3.2x return. But with 12 days until resolution, the price implies traders think a breakthrough is unlikely.
What to watch
Any statements from US or Iranian officials about new negotiations. A confirmed meeting at a neutral location could move the diplomatic meeting market sharply.
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Where Will The Next Us Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen 455| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 29.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 63% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 45.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 43.5% | — | — | Trade → |
