Iran claims US bunker-buster bomb neutralised amid military tensions

Iran claims to have neutralised a U.S. bunker-buster bomb amid ongoing military tensions. The likelihood of Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 is now at 7% YES, down from 65% a week ago.

The claimed neutralisation suggests either a failed U.S. strike or an Iranian interception. The April 30 uranium surrender market sits at 7% YES with only 6 days remaining. The June 30 market is at 29% YES, pricing in some possibility of a deal within the next couple of months.

The Iranian regime fall market has ticked up to 8.5% YES. The move is small but comes during a period of active military operations against Iran.

Trading volume in the enriched uranium markets totals $39,286 USDC, with significant amounts needed to shift prices, pointing to stable trader consensus. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 1-point spike in April contracts, suggesting limited immediate market impact from the news.

The bomb neutralisation claim is a strategic signal rather than a tactical game-changer. The diplomatic stalemate remains intact. At 7¢, a YES share pays $1, a 14x potential return, but the price implies a diplomatic breakthrough within six days is unlikely.

Traders should watch for statements from Iranian leaders like Khamenei or Pezeshkian, particularly any announcements rejecting U.S. demands or signaling further military escalation. Those developments could move odds on both the uranium surrender and regime fall contracts.

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Iran Agrees To Surrender Enriched Uranium Stockpile

Contract	Odds	Δ since publish	Volume 24h
April 30, 2026	6.8%	—	—	Trade →
December 31, 2026	42%	—	—	Trade →

Iran Agrees To End Enrichment Of Uranium June 30

Contract	Odds	Δ since publish	Volume 24h
June 30	28.5%	—	—	Trade →

Will The Iranian Regime Fall June 30

Contract	Odds	Δ since publish	Volume 24h
June 30	8.5%	—	—	Trade →

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