Iran’s deputy parliamentary speaker says the Strait of Hormuz will never revert to its former status, under orders from Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market has dropped to 2% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
The April 30 peace deal market is nearly dead, with only 6 days left. Traders are shifting attention to May 31 at 30.5% YES and June 30 at 48.5% YES, a steep jump in expectations once the calendar moves past this month.
Volume at $854K in daily USDC traded across peace deal markets. It takes $27,666 to move the April contract 5 points, which suggests institutional participation. The uranium enrichment cessation by April 30 contract sits at 1.4% YES. The largest single move was a 6-point spike, showing how reactive traders are to headline risk.
Iran’s Hormuz claim is a direct threat to the world’s most important oil transit route, and it makes any near-term diplomatic agreement harder to imagine. A YES share for a peace deal by April 30 costs 2¢, paying 50x if somehow resolved.
Watch for CENTCOM’s response or any White House shift in sanctions policy. Either could move the May and June contracts sharply.
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Iran Agrees To End Enrichment Of Uranium April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 30.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 48.5% | — | — | Trade → |
