Iranian naval forces claim to have blocked US and Israeli carrier strike groups from entering the Sea of Oman. The market for the UK sending warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 has dropped to 6% YES, down from 12% a week ago.
The UK warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz market is priced at 6¢ for a YES share. The halving from 12% to 6% in one week coincides with Iran’s claimed blockade, which signals a willingness to physically contest allied naval access to the Sea of Oman even during the fragile US-Iran ceasefire.
The market has a daily face value of $24,906, with $2,086 in actual USDC turnover. The order book is thin: just $427 would move the price by 5 percentage points. Small trades can swing the odds substantially.
Iran’s assertion of control over the Sea of Oman raises the risk of escalation and may discourage allied warship transits in the near term. The market reflects this: a YES share at 6¢ pays $1 if the UK sends warships through the Strait by April 30, a 16.7x return. That pricing implies strong skepticism about a UK deployment while Iran is actively contesting passage.
Watch for statements from UK Defence HQ or naval movements confirmed by @UKDefenceHQ. Any confirmed UK warship deployment toward the Strait would likely cause a sharp repricing.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 6 12| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
