Iran’s Foreign Minister labeled the US blockade on Iranian ports an “act of war,” claiming it violates the ceasefire. The probability of Iran striking Israel by April 30 remains at 100% YES.
The statement comes amid a US naval blockade in the Arabian Sea. The blockade’s enforcement led to an incident involving the Iranian-flagged M/V Touska, which escalated risks further. The market for Trump announcing a blockade lift by May 31 is at 79.5% YES, up from 76% yesterday.
Markets for Iran’s potential military actions against neighboring countries sit at a flat 100% YES, meaning traders see no realistic scenario where a strike hasn’t already occurred or won’t occur before the deadline. The odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June remain uncertain given the current standoff.
The Trump blockade announcement market trades $18,073 in daily USDC volume, with $9,244 needed to shift prices by 5 points. That’s a thick book, not easily moved by small orders.
With YES shares at 79.5¢, the market prices in a blockade announcement, but odds may fall if Iran’s defiance leads to sustained confrontation rather than negotiation. Traders betting on resolution would need to see concrete diplomatic movement soon.
Watch for developments from upcoming diplomatic talks in Pakistan and any signals from CENTCOM on military posture. Both could move the blockade and military action markets.
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Iran Military Action Against April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 79.5% | — | — | Trade → |
