Iran’s declaration that the US blockade is an “act of war” has moved prediction markets. The odds of Trump announcing the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31 have dropped to 73.5% YES, down from 82% just 24 hours ago.
The declaration signals escalating tensions and makes a near-term lifting of the blockade less likely. The Trump blockade announcement market shows traders turning bearish on a quick resolution. Daily face value is at $35,317 with $27,582 in actual USDC. It takes $8,549 to move the market 5 points, which points to reasonable order book depth.
The odds of Iran striking Israel by April 30 sit at 100% YES across multiple sub-markets. Trading volume in these sub-markets is minimal, which suggests the consensus is already locked in: traders treat Iranian military escalation as a near-certainty given the rhetoric.
For traders, the main signal is a higher probability of prolonged tensions. The odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of June look poor, with Iran’s position making swift de-escalation unlikely. Buying YES at current prices would pay off if an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough happens, but the risk is high.
Watch for shifts in US naval deployments or diplomatic efforts involving Pakistan as markers for potential de-escalation. Trump’s next statement or tweet could also move these markets sharply.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
