U.S. LNG exports have hit capacity limits as Qatar supply loss continues, and the Polymarket contract on crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sits at 0.8% YES, down from 2% a day ago.
Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has choked off one of the world’s most important energy transit routes, directly affecting crude oil price markets and tanker transit predictions. The odds for 80 ships transiting the Strait by April 30 have collapsed to 1% YES, down from 51% just a week ago. Shipping activity through the Strait shows no signs of returning to normal on that timeline.
Traffic normalization by end of April looks equally unlikely. No recorded daily vessel transits have returned to pre-war levels, and the market had no registered trading volume, which points to traders writing off a quick resolution.
Actual USDC traded in these markets is thin: $2,513 daily for crude oil highs and $449 for ship transits. It takes only $695 to move oil prices five percentage points, meaning any real development could cause sharp swings. The largest recent market move was a one-point spike in crude oil, consistent with the absence of positive news.
The ongoing blockade combined with U.S. LNG capacity constraints points to a structural shift rather than temporary noise. At 1¢, a YES share on ship transits offers a 99x return, but the price reflects near-zero probability. For these odds to move, traders would need to see a concrete diplomatic breakthrough or unexpected logistical changes on the ground.
Watch for announcements from U.S. Central Command or the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Any shift in military posture or a diplomatic opening could move these markets quickly.
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Crude Oil All Time High April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.3% | — | — | Trade → |