Iran’s attack on an Indian-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed the likelihood of 80 ships transiting by April 30 down to 22% YES, a sharp drop from 51% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
Odds for 80 ships transiting by April 30 collapsed after the news broke. The attack occurred despite prior clearance for the vessel, pointing to inconsistent enforcement of Iran’s transit rules. That inconsistency has traders doubting the probability of high-volume transits in the coming weeks. The largest single move was a 10-point drop at 5:48 PM as traders recalibrated their risk estimates.
Why it matters
Daily trading volume sits at $16,360 in USDC. But the order book is thin: it takes just $797 to swing prices by 5 percentage points. Interest is high, but the market is easy to move, especially while tensions persist. Traders are pricing in higher odds of miscalculations leading to escalation, and the attack exposes how fragile the current ceasefire is.
What to watch
At 22¢, a YES share on 80 ships transiting by April 30 pays $1 if resolved, a 4.5x return. That bet requires believing Iran will stabilize transit protocols and ensure safe passage, which looks unlikely right now. Key variables: further IRGC actions, diplomatic responses from India and other involved parties, and any movement toward clearer transit protocols or increased security measures in the strait.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 6 12| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 22.5% | — | — | Trade → |
