The Iranian Army has confirmed full control of the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns over global oil flow disruptions. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 now sits at 19.5% YES.
Market reaction
The market reflects skepticism about traffic normalization given Iran’s blockade posture. Odds for May 15 normalization are down from 20% yesterday, with 21 days until resolution. Iranian forces’ coordinated control signals a maintained blockade, reducing prospects for quick resolution.
In a related market, the likelihood of the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 is at 1.9% YES. That number is unchanged from yesterday but down from 12% a week ago. Internal divisions within Iran over Strait control raise the barrier to foreign military intervention.
Why it matters
USDC volume in the Strait of Hormuz traffic market reached $36,459, with a $4,658 cost to move the market 5 percentage points. That cost-to-move figure points to a relatively stable market absent a major catalyst.
Iranian forces’ coordinated control suggests a strategic long-term blockade, even against superior US naval presence. A YES share for traffic normalization by May 15 trades at 20¢, a potential 5x return if conditions improve. With Iran’s current posture, this is a speculative bet.
What to watch
Watch for statements from General Michael Kurilla or shifts in US Central Command’s stance. A reduction in IRGC activity or a diplomatic breakthrough could move odds significantly.
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Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 19.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
