Iran has communicated to intermediaries its intention to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, according to a WSJ report. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 sits at 17.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday.
Iran’s assertion of control points to continued disruptions, and the Strait of Hormuz traffic market has moved accordingly. With 21 days until the May 15 resolution, traders are pricing in sustained tension. The market’s largest move so far was a modest 2-point spike, leaving room for significant volatility if conditions change.
In the Trump’s Hormuz Blockade market, odds for a blockade lift by May 31 have fallen to 58%, down from 72% yesterday. Iran’s firm stance complicates any potential easing of US naval operations in the strait.
The strait handles roughly a fifth of global oil trade, and Iran’s messaging reads as a strategic posture rather than a temporary disruption. The 14-point drop in the blockade-lift market in a single day reflects real skepticism about a quick de-escalation.
Watch for statements from General Michael Kurilla and any operational changes from CENTCOM, as either could move odds sharply in the coming weeks. An announcement from Trump or new peace talks would also shift market sentiment.
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Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 57.5% | — | — | Trade → |
