Iran agrees to reopen Strait of Hormuz, halting tolls and fighting

By Estefano Gomez · Published May 24, 2026 · 2 min read · Source: Crypto Briefing

## Market Snapshot

Strait of Hormuz traffic by May is currently priced at 14.7% YES, significantly up from 2% just 24 hours ago. The Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 31 has increased to 71.5% YES from 44% over the same period. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure market remains largely unaffected, holding at 3.4% YES.

## Key Takeaways

– Markets suggest the agreement for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a return to normal traffic by the end of May. – The likelihood of normal traffic by July 31 appears to have increased significantly, indicating confidence in the agreement’s implementation. – The Bab el-Mandeb Strait market remains largely unchanged, suggesting the news is not relevant to this scenario.

## Article Body

In a diplomatic breakthrough, Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls and to halt fighting, according to U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian officials. The announcement was made in coordination with the U.S. and other international actors, aiming to address the ongoing tension in the region. This agreement also includes discussions on Iran’s nuclear program at a later stage. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime passage for global oil shipments, and its reopening is expected to have significant implications for international shipping and oil markets.

## Market Interpretation

The market’s response to the news has been marked, with significant increases in the YES pricing for the Strait of Hormuz traffic markets. The May market, now at 14.7% YES, and the July 31 market, at 71.5% YES, indicate strong confidence in the deal leading to a normalization of shipping traffic. This development appears to have a high impact on the market, reflecting optimism about the resolution of the blockade. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait market remains unaffected, consistent with its irrelevance to this specific news.

## What to Watch

Key actors to monitor include the U.S. Central Command and Iranian officials as they implement the agreement. Additional confirmations from organizations like the International Maritime Organization or BIMCO could further influence market perceptions. Any changes in oil prices or official statements from involved parties may also impact market dynamics. Watch for updates on the nuclear discussions, as these could affect the broader geopolitical landscape.

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Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal End Of May

Contract	Odds	Δ since publish	Volume 24h
May 31	14.5%	—	—	View market →

Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal July 31

Contract	Odds	Δ since publish	Volume 24h
July 31	71%	—	—	View market →

Bab El Mandeb Strait Effectively Closed

Contract	Odds	Δ since publish	Volume 24h
May 31	3.4%	—	—	View market →

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