Iran has agreed to a 14-day ceasefire contingent on the Strait of Hormuz reopening. The ceasefire by April 15 market now sits at 100% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.
The April 15 ceasefire market spiked 24 points, moving from 67% to 90% in late-night trading before reaching 100%. The markets for April 30, May 31, and June 30 have also reached 100% YES. Traders are pricing the ceasefire as certain across all timeframes.
Combined 24-hour trading volume across these markets hit $16,327,800, with $5,188,952 in actual USDC traded. The largest single move was the 24-point spike at 10:34 PM, likely triggered by large orders reacting to the ceasefire announcement. Even with high liquidity in the order books, the price moved fast.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz represents a shift from military confrontation to negotiation, given the strait’s role in global oil and LNG transit. For traders, 100% YES odds on the April 15 ceasefire mean no speculative edge remains on that contract. With all current sub-markets also at 100% YES, contrarian bets are unavailable unless new tensions emerge. If negotiations break down after the initial 14-day window, later-dated markets could reprice quickly, but right now there is nothing to trade against.
Watch the negotiations in Islamabad this Friday. Changes in tone or substance there could move future markets. Any involvement from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar could also affect how traders price the durability of this agreement.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
