Iranian President Pezeshkian told Pakistan’s Prime Minister that the US naval blockade is a ceasefire violation. The likelihood of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April sits at 38% YES, down from 62% yesterday.
Pezeshkian’s accusation has hit multiple related markets. The permanent peace deal by April 22 market is at 14.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday. The ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 market has jumped to 17.5% YES, up from 8%.
Volume tells two different stories. The permanent peace deal market trades $610,678/day in USDC, while the ceasefire breach market trades just $3,485/day. Order book analysis shows it takes only $498 to move the breach market 5 points, meaning a single large order can swing it.
Iran’s statement adds pressure but doesn’t change the underlying situation. The blockade’s continuation looks more like a bargaining posture than a step toward open conflict. Buying YES at 38¢ offers a 2.08x return if you expect a diplomatic breakthrough within 11 days. But Pezeshkian’s rhetoric points to entrenched positions, making that unlikely without new concessions from either side.
Watch for Trump’s responses on Truth Social or White House statements. Any shift in US rhetoric or announced concessions could move these markets fast.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 38% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 33.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 54.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 66.5% | — | — | Trade → |
