India has been invited by the UK and France to join their initiative to restore safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The market for the UK sending warships through the strait by April 30 sits at 5.5% YES, down from 12% a week ago.
Traders are skeptical despite India’s potential involvement suggesting a broader coalition. The initiative is focused on defensive operations post-ceasefire, but that hasn’t shifted conviction that the UK will dispatch warships soon. With 14 days until resolution, odds are flat at 5.5%.
Volume tells a similar story: $2,086 in USDC traded daily, with $477 in order book depth to move the price 5 points. That’s thin enough that a single large order could shift the odds, but it hasn’t happened. The largest recent move was a one-point drop.
India’s inclusion is coalition-building, not confirmation of warship deployment. The UK’s decision will likely depend on tangible developments: official statements from the UK Ministry of Defence or concrete international maritime cooperation. At 6¢, buying YES shares pays $1 if the UK sends warships, a potential 16.7x return. But you’d need to believe the UK’s commitment is imminent.
Watch for today’s video summit with over 40 non-belligerent nations. Any confirmation of warship movements or commitments to secure the strait could shift the odds.
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