The IEA chief warned Europe has a six-week jet fuel supply amid the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockage. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 is at 53.5% YES.
The April 30 normalization odds have barely moved, up from 60% a day ago, despite the IEA warning. This market has $19,442 in daily USDC volume, with $736 in order book depth to move the price 5 points. The biggest recent move was a 9-point drop, which points to skepticism about a quick resolution. The May 31 market sits at 82.5%, which means traders expect a resolution sometime in May rather than April.
The jet fuel warning puts a concrete number on what the strait’s closure means for European energy security. With 14 days left before the April deadline, odds have held steady even after the IEA statement. Traders are pricing in continued tension through the end of the month while betting on a May resolution.
Total face value of combined trades over the last 24 hours is $73,225, but only $48,542 of that is actual money changing hands, which suggests cautious positioning. The thin order book depth means a few large trades can move this market significantly; the price is not anchored by broad participation.
The IEA warning puts real supply numbers behind the risk of prolonged closure. At 53.5¢, a NO share pays $1 if traffic isn’t normalized by April 30, a 2.56x return. That’s a bet on continued standoff over rapid diplomatic progress.
Watch for Trump’s next statements on military positioning or diplomatic contact with Iran. Any concrete moves by either side to ease tensions would shift these odds quickly.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 61% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 10% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 80% | — | — | Trade → |
