Hyperliquid’s HYPE token could be its prediction market weapon, Arthur Hayes says
HIP-4 could become a dominant prediction-market venue because Hyperliquid users can get economic exposure to platform usage through HYPE, unlike users of Polymarket or Kalshi.
By Sam Reynolds|Edited by Omkar Godbole Apr 30, 2026, 4:54 a.m. 2 min readMake preferred on
What to know:
- Arthur Hayes argues Hyperliquid’s planned HIP-4 prediction markets will stand out not just for low fees but because its HYPE token lets users share directly in the platform’s upside.
- Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, informally called POLY, with premarket trading implying a roughly $14 billion fully diluted valuation versus about $38 billion for HYPE.
- Regulatory posture sharply divides the rivals, with Polymarket and Kalshi constrained by U.S. and regional rules while Hyperliquid, skewing toward Asian crypto-native traders, operates without comparable compliance limits.
Leading decentralized exchange Hyperliquid's push into prediction markets is about who captures the upside, not just cheaper trading, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX exchange and CIO of Maelstrom fund.
CoinDesk reported earlier that Hyperliquid is preparing a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 is a proposal that introduces event trading on Hyperliquid.
Hayes said that structure is only the first layer. In a note to CoinDesk, he argued that the real differentiator is HYPE, Hyperliquid’s exchange token, which he said allows users to benefit from platform activity in a way Polymarket and Kalshi currently do not.
“HIP-4 will quickly become a dominate prediction market because of Hyperliquid's large user base, much cheaper trading fees, and very robust tech infrastructure,” Hayes told CoinDesk. “Users who own the $HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4.”
Polymarket is expected to launch a token, often referred to as $POLY.
On Gate, premarket perpetual contracts tied to a potential $POLY token are trading around $14, implying a fully-diluted valuation of roughly $14 billion. HYPE, by comparison, has an FDV of about $38 billion, according to CoinGecko data.
Pre-listing markets are often highly speculative and can be thinly traded, meaning any implied valuation should be treated with caution and may not reliably reflect actual market demand.
The argument also comes down to geography. Polymarket registered with the CFTC last July and is rebuilding its U.S. business, putting compliance at the center of its strategy.
However, in Asia, it is still grappling with how regulators classify its product. It is geoblocked in Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan, partially restricted in Japan. Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, prediction markets more broadly are on the radar of gambling regulators
Hyperliquid faces no equivalent constraint, and its user base skews toward Asia, where crypto-native trading is already deep.
The contrast is clearest with Kalshi.
As a CFTC-regulated exchange, Kalshi’s model is built around compliance and licensing, not token incentives, which likely rules out the kind of value-accrual layer Hayes is pointing to.
That makes it the most direct test of his thesis. Users can trade event outcomes on Kalshi, but they have no path to the upside of the platform itself. In traditional markets, that kind of upside is typically accessed via equity, such as an IPO, though for now, Kalshi users' participation is limited to trading on the platform.
Across the three platforms, the split is structural: Hyperliquid already ties usage to a token, Polymarket appears to be moving in that direction, and Kalshi’s model likely prevents it altogether.
Prediction MarketsMore For You
Jack Mallers' Twenty One Capital surges after majority holder Tether proposes 3-way merger
By James Van Straten, AI Boost|Edited by Aoyon Ashraf, Stephen Alpher6 hours ago
Tether has moved to combine bitcoin treasury, mining, and financial services under one roof.
What to know:
- Tether Investments has proposed merging Twenty One Capital (XXI) with Strike, a Bitcoin financial services platform, and bitcoin miner Elektron Energy.
- If completed, the combined entity would unite bitcoin treasury, mining, financial services, lending, and capital markets under one public company.
- XXI shares have climbed nearly 8% in after-market trading...
Jack Mallers' Twenty One Capital surges after majority holder Tether proposes 3-way merger
6 hours ago
Big Tech's multi-billion dollar AI bets are still on track as Mag 7 giants report earnings
7 hours ago
Eric Trump says bitcoin in its 'greatest period ever' as Wall Street falls in line
9 hours ago
Fed chair Jerome Powell says he will stay on as Govenor after term amid legal pressure
9 hours ago
Tech giant Meta starts paying some creators in stablecoin with Stripe's support
9 hours ago
JPMorgan hires former Goldman Sachs exec for Kinexys. Here is why he believes tokenization is only half the battle
10 hours agoTop Stories
Fed leaves rates unchanged at Jerome Powell's final meeting as chairman
11 hours ago
Robinhood, Coinbase lead crypto stock rout as Trump rejects Iran plan
12 hours ago
Hyperliquid is preparing to take on Polymarket with a new way to trade real-world events
13 hours ago
The AI-crypto disconnect: Why Pantera’s CEO thinks institutions are missing the boat on bitcoin
13 hours ago
U.S. senator holding cards on Clarity Act's next move says it's ready to get to hearing
11 hours ago
