Hyperliquid predicted 80% of oil move before traditional exchanges opened, says expert report

TD Securities says "perpetual futures" are exploding beyond crypto as platforms like Hyperliquid outpace traditional Wall Street exchanges on everything from pre-IPO tech stocks to weekend oil trading.

What to know:

• Perpetual futures, once a niche crypto instrument, are evolving into a broader market-structure product that could span commodities, equities and private markets, according to TD Securities.
• Recent U.S. regulatory moves and rising institutional demand, including CFTC approval of bitcoin perpetuals on Kalshi and Coinbase’s plans for equity-index perps, are accelerating the shift.
• Platforms like Hyperliquid are testing traditional exchanges’ roles in price discovery by offering commodity and pre-IPO perpetual futures, prompting scrutiny and competitive responses from incumbents such as CME and ICE.

Perpetual futures are beginning to break out of their origins and emerge as a broader asset class beyond crypto, according to a new report from TD Securities.

The bank said recent regulatory developments in the U.S. and growing institutional demand are helping transform perpetual futures, commonly known as "perps," from a niche crypto instrument into a market structure that could eventually span commodities, equities and private-market investing.

"PERPs are no longer just a crypto product. They are becoming a broader market-structure product," TD Securities wrote.

Perpetual futures differ from traditional futures because they do not expire. Instead, they rely on funding-rate mechanisms that keep prices aligned with underlying markets. The contracts have become the dominant trading vehicle in crypto, accounting for roughly 80% of global digital asset trading volumes, according to TD.

Momentum accelerated last month when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) allowed bitcoin BTC$67,671.35 perpetual futures to trade on prediction market platform Kalshi. Around the same time, Coinbase (COIN) announced plans to launch U.S. equity-index perpetual futures and moved closer to connecting American customers with offshore perpetual futures markets.

The report argues that institutional demand is expanding beyond cryptocurrencies. Hyperliquid (HYPE), the largest decentralized perpetual futures platform, now offers contracts linked to commodities and private companies. The exchange has become a venue for trading pre-IPO contracts tied to firms such as Cerebras and SpaceX, allowing traders to speculate on valuations before public listings.

Hyperliquid's growth is also beginning to test the traditional role of exchanges such as CME Group in price discovery.

TD pointed to trading activity during the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict earlier this year, when commodity markets were closed for the weekend but Hyperliquid remained open. According to the report, notional volume in oil-linked perpetual futures on the platform grew from roughly $25 million to more than $550 million by the third weekend of trading. Hyperliquid also priced in about 80% of the subsequent move in West Texas Intermediate crude before CME's market reopened.

"The significance was not just the volume, but price discovery happening before traditional commodity markets reopened," TD wrote.

The trend extends beyond commodities. TD said Hyperliquid's pre-IPO perpetual futures tied to companies such as Cerebras and SpaceX have become an early test of whether blockchain-based markets can help establish valuations before stocks begin trading publicly.

That growth has drawn scrutiny from incumbent exchanges. TD noted that ICE and CME have pushed regulators to examine Hyperliquid's oil-linked products while simultaneously exploring similar offerings themselves, highlighting a growing battle between traditional and crypto-native market infrastructure.

TD expects commodities to be the next major growth area for perpetual futures, with oil, gold and copper among the most likely candidates. As regulators move toward creating a formal U.S. framework for the products, the bank said the larger question is whether perpetual futures can retain their appeal once they are brought under tighter oversight.

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Institutional investors are ditching range-bound bitcoin and ether for Hyperliquid as the decentralized platform wins over hedge funds with massive liquidity and early access to hot markets, according to Joshua Lim, head of markets at FalconX.

What to know:

• Hyperliquid’s HYPE token and derivatives platform have become a major liquidity hub for hedge funds and institutional investors seeking trades beyond bitcoin and ether, according to FalconX.
• With bitcoin and ether seen as range-bound amid macro uncertainty and ETF outflows, speculative capital is rotating into altcoins such as HYPE, Zcash...

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