The House passed a resolution to block the deportation of 350,000 Haitians, challenging Trump’s immigration policy. The “Trump out as President by June 30” market sits at 5.5% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
Seven Republicans joined 212 Democrats to pass the resolution, but the Senate remains a hurdle. This internal GOP fracture could pressure Trump’s presidency, though it doesn’t directly threaten it. The resolution’s passage hardly moved the odds for Trump’s early exit, which remain low at 5.5%.
Why it matters
The 2026 midterms balance of power market might see more action. A bipartisan rebuke of Trump’s policies could indicate shifting voter sentiments and affect Democratic chances in upcoming elections.
What to watch
The market for Trump’s exit trades $1,109/day in actual USDC, requiring $37,198 to move the price 5 points. This is a relatively stable market, unlikely to be swayed by single large trades. The largest move within the last 24 hours was a 0.5% decrease.
Without Senate approval, the resolution is political theater rather than a substantive threat. At 5.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump leaves by June 30, an 18x return. That payout requires a major political shift within 75 days.
Watch for the Senate Majority Leader’s response and the Supreme Court’s April 29 hearing on TPS. Senate rejection or a favorable court ruling for Trump would solidify his position.
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