Only 8 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on April 26, and the odds of 80 ships transiting by April 30 have dropped to 0.8% YES, down from 4% yesterday.
Market reaction
The 80-ship transit market has collapsed from 51% a week ago. Six tankers have been turned back, and a fragile ceasefire is in place. The traffic normalization market is pricing against a return to normal levels before April ends.
Volume is low: $449 in USDC traded daily, and the cost to move odds 5 percentage points is just $542. A few large trades can swing prices substantially, which makes this a thin market prone to sharp moves.
Why it matters
Continued restrictions at Hormuz directly constrain oil supply through the world’s most trafficked chokepoint. The ceasefire has not restored normal shipping flows, and with only 4 days left before the April 30 deadline, the market sees almost no path to 80 daily transits without a diplomatic breakthrough. At 0.8¢, a YES share pays $1 if it resolves, a 125x return, but the price reflects heavy betting against that outcome.
Crude oil price expectations are likely to face upward pressure as long as Hormuz stays restricted, though no specific Polymarket odds on oil prices are available here.
What to watch
White House announcements or Iranian responses regarding the blockade. A deal could shift odds fast, but without concrete progress, expect the current pricing to hold.
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