Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have compounded shipping woes for Chinese manufacturers. The chance of 80 ships transiting the strait by April 30 is at 29% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
The market for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 saw a 6-point spike earlier today, likely driven by traders reacting to the dual blockades and Iran’s rejection of further talks. The dual blockade severely restricts transit, and the rising odds reflect growing pessimism about free movement through the strait.
Recent news from the region suggests the situation is getting worse, not better. The market’s 29% YES means traders see some possibility of a breakthrough, but the April 30 deadline is 10 days away.
Trade volume sits at $5,289 per day in USDC, with $2,087 needed to move the market price by five percentage points. That low depth means a few large trades could cause significant swings.
A YES share at 29¢ pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 3.45x return. Taking the YES side requires believing that diplomatic efforts or unexpected de-escalation will produce results within 10 days.
Watch for diplomatic activity or military de-escalation, particularly from Admiral Brad Cooper at U.S. Central Command or any IRGC announcements about easing restrictions in the strait. Either would likely move this market sharply.
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Will Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz On Any Day End Of April| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 29% | 0.0¢ | $21K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.5% | 0.0¢ | $381 | Trade → |
