Honeywell announced the $1.4 billion sale of its Productivity Solutions and Services business to Brady Corporation, while SpaceX’s S-1 filing projects a $28.5 trillion addressable market. The odds for SpaceX’s IPO by June 30 are at 71% YES.
The SpaceX filing included details about its board structure and market sizing, which traders treated as concrete progress toward an IPO. The June 30 market moved from 68% to 71% over the past week. The September 30 market sits at 92.5%, unchanged from a week ago.
Combined daily USDC volume across these markets is $2,796, with $4,330 required to move the June 30 market by five points. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike at 1:50 PM.
SpaceX’s $28.5 trillion market projection in its S-1 supports the case for a high-valuation IPO. At 71¢, a YES share for a June 30 IPO pays $1 if it resolves, a 1.41x return. That price implies traders need to believe in a clean regulatory path and no significant delays over the next 68 days.
Watch for SEC filings and announcements from Elon Musk on timeline specifics. Any public S-1 prospectus or roadshow details could move this market.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 71% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 92.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 92.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.3% | — | — | Trade → |
