Hezbollah’s Wafiq Safa reaffirmed that disarmament won’t occur until Israel meets several conditions. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market is at 94% YES.
Safa’s statement pushes against ceasefire prospects as the April 30 expiry date approaches. The June 30 market sits at 97% YES, a slim three-point gap over the April contract.
Both the April 30 and June 30 markets have drawn heavy activity. The April market spiked 13 points on $1,044,154 in daily USDC volume, with traders betting on a near-term resolution. Moving the June market by five points requires $134,681, making it less volatile and more settled in trader expectations.
Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm complicates the fragile 10-day truce and could stall broader negotiations tied to the 2026 Iran war. Safa’s comments point to real barriers: Hezbollah is conditioning disarmament on Israeli concessions that haven’t materialized. Buying YES shares at 94¢ offers a 1.06x return if a ceasefire is declared by April 30. For that bet to pay, Safa’s demands need to be addressed or sidestepped before the deadline.
Watch for shifts in Israel’s military posture or new diplomatic overtures from Washington. A change in Hezbollah’s tone or a surprise concession could move these contracts quickly.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |