Hezbollah fired rockets at Safed, Israel, as the 2026 Lebanon war continues. The odds of Israel conducting military action against Iran by April 21 sit at 16% YES, down from 22% a day ago.
The barrage shows Hezbollah can still strike Israel despite Israeli operations in southern Lebanon. The market for military action by April 14 remains at 1.4% YES, pricing in very low probability of immediate escalation. The April 21 contract draws more attention, with traders weighing whether Israeli retaliation or broader action becomes more likely as the conflict continues.
Combined 24-hour volume across both markets was $238,945 in face value, with $12,055 in actual USDC traded. Order book depth: $1,553 and $2,333 needed to move prices by 5 points for the April 14 and April 21 markets, respectively. These are moderately liquid books where a single large trade can move odds fast, as shown by a 2-point spike at 5:05 AM.
The conflict’s potential to disrupt oil supplies keeps crude oil price predictions for end of June in focus. If the situation escalates further, Hezbollah’s continued attacks could sustain pressure on crude prices.
Watch for statements from Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump. Any shift in military posture or diplomatic tone could move these markets. IDF operational updates or back-channel diplomatic moves would also be worth tracking.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 0.9% | -0.5¢ | $176K | Trade → |
| April 21 | 11.5% | -4¢ | $66K | Trade → |
